The US Federal Reserve tops the most important events this week

Markets await the meeting of the European Central Bank and the Australian Reserve

Keep an eye out for US employment numbers from New Zealand and Canada

Separate economic data

With the entry of the month of May, attention turns during the sessions of the current week towards many economic data that will have a direct impact on currency movements, as the meetings of the three central banks (the Federal Reserve – the European Central Bank – the Australian Reserve) lead in addition to labor market figures from New Zealand, the United States of America and Canada, and inflation figures From the euro zone and many economic figures, the events of this week.

US Federal Employment Numbers

The Open Market Committee (FOMC) is expected to start its meeting tomorrow, Tuesday, and announce its results on Wednesday in the American session, where expectations indicate that the US Federal Reserve will raise interest rates by 25 basis points, to reach 5.25%.

The latest data for inflation before the relevant Consumer Price Index (CPI) showed an increase of 0.1% in March after an increase of 0.4% in February, while the core index excluding food and energy prices rose to 0.4% compared to 0.5% in February. On the other hand, the annual index increased over the past 12 months to 5.0% from 6.0% in February, while expectations were for a rise of 5.1%.

The annual core index, excluding food and energy prices, fell to 5.6% on an annual basis in March from 5.5% to match. for expectations. On the other hand, the US Fed’s preferred indicator of consumer spending (PCE) slowed in March by 0.3%, and by 4.6% on an annual basis.

Forecasts for future contracts by the FEDWatch tool from CME now see an increase of 25 basis points in the May meeting, by 84%, so that levels of 5.25% are the levels of peak interest rates, while it sees a reduction of 25 basis points in interest rates at least in the fourth and last quarter of this year.

With inflation rates stable and slowing continuously, the US Federal Reserve may hint that it will stop tightening monetary policy in June, but it is not expected that it will give any signs of changing monetary policy and lowering interest rates this year, as stated in the last meeting of the Fed, and therefore the markets will monitor Powell’s statements regarding this issue. Which will be the main driver of the markets in the coming period.

In addition to inflation figures, the US Federal Reserve is expected to release labor market figures for the month of April, as it is expected to announce the addition of about 180,000 jobs, unemployment rates to rise to 3.6%, and wage rates to stabilize.

European Central Bank

After the bank’s decision in mid-March to raise interest rates by 50 basis points, to reach 3.5%, and deleting the phrase that the bank will raise interest rates in the coming period further with the development of the banking crisis at that time, the markets retreated from their expectations of raising interest rates by 50 basis points at the May meeting to about 25 Basis point in raising for the seventh time in a row.

The latest inflation figures for the eurozone in March, according to estimates by Eurostat or the Statistical Office of the European Union, showed an increase in annual inflation in the eurozone to 6.9%, compared to 8.5% in the February reading, while the main index excluding food and energy prices rose to 5.7% in March, compared to 5.5%. 6 in February reading.

The eurozone is expected to announce preliminary inflation figures for February tomorrow, Tuesday, 48 hours before the meeting of the European Central Bank, as estimates indicate a slight increase in inflation to 7%, with core inflation slowing to 5.6%.

It supports an interest rate hike of 25 basis points, and vice versa, if it came higher than expectations, it may change the market’s expectations that the bank will tend to tighten stronger and raise it by 50 basis points.

Reserve Bank of Australia

The Reserve Bank of Australia will meet tomorrow, Tuesday, in the Asian session, to discuss monetary policy developments, as it is estimated that the bank will keep its monetary policy and interest rates unchanged at 3.60% for the second month in a row.

Inflation in Australia recorded a rise of 7.0% on a quarterly basis in the first quarter ending in March, compared to 7.8% in the fourth quarter of last year, retreating from its highest level in 30 years, while the annual index fell to 6.3% in March, compared to 6.8% in February. .

Separate economic data

Monday

Manufacturing PMI from Japan

US manufacturing index

Tuesday

Reserve Bank of Australia meeting

Inflation figures from the eurozone

Vacancies and job turnover from the USA

Wednesday

Labor market figures from New Zealand

Employment in the private sector of the United States of America

US Services Index

Fed meeting

Thursday European Central Bank meeting US weekly unemploymen

ف benefits Remarks

by Bank of Canada Governor MacClem

Friday

Service Index of China

Inflation from Switzerland

American labor market

Canadian labor market