The Bank of England and the Australian Reserve most important events this week

Keep an eye out for US labor market numbers

Eurozone inflation matched expectations in July

Separate economic data

After the meeting of three central banks (Federal – European – Japanese) in addition to inflation figures from Australia and Japan, inflation in consumer spending from the United States of America, figures for the manufacturing and services sectors, and many separate economic figures issued last week’s events, the financial markets return in a new week and new economic figures will be released Overshadowing this week’s trading is led by the meeting of the Central Bank of England and the Australian Reserve, in addition to inflation numbers from the eurozone, labor market numbers from the United States of America, and many scattered economic figures.

Reserve Bank of Australia

The Asian session of tomorrow morning, Tuesday, August 1, will witness a meeting of monetary policy members at the Reserve Bank of Australia to discuss monetary policy developments and determine interest levels, after the bank kept its monetary policy and interest rates at 4.10% at its last meeting in July, the highest level since 2012.

Expectations of analysts and economists indicate that the Bank will resume tightening monetary policy tomorrow and will raise interest rates by 25% basis points to reach 4.35% after the temporary halt. Recent figures showed an increase in the consumer price index or inflation in Australia by 5.4% on an annual basis in June, compared to 5.6% in May, revised to 5.5%, while the monthly index rose by 0.8%, or 6% in the second quarter of this year, compared to 7% in the first quarter. the first .

There is no consensus that the Bank will raise interest rates tomorrow, and it is not excluded that it will keep them for the second month in a row, especially after the Bank commented in its previous meeting that it wanted more time to assess the impact of previous increases, and therefore all options are available, but the strongest expectations are in favor of raising by 25 basis points. The last hike will be in light of the response to inflation and slowdown.

We remind you that tomorrow’s meeting is the penultimate meeting of the Governor of the Australian Bank, Lowe, who will leave in mid-September, and Michel Bullock will take over the position.

Central Bank of England

The markets are awaiting the mid-trading of the European session on Thursday, the third of August, the results of the meeting of the Central Bank of England and its monetary policy, as expectations indicate that the bank will raise interest rates by 25 basis points to reach 5.25% for the fourteenth time in a row, to reach their highest levels in fifteen years.

The last reading of inflation in the consumer price index in the United Kingdom, issued last week, came to a growth of 7.9% in the 12 months ending in June, compared to 8.7% in May, marking the lowest pace of growth since March 2022, while inflation rose on a monthly basis by 0.1% in June.

The main index, excluding food and energy prices, rose to 6.9% from 7.1%, down from its highest level since 1992. Inflation in the United Kingdom is the highest among the Group of Seven, despite the strong signs of decline in the latest reading, which may support a slowdown in the pace of tightening by bank members or a temporary pause after this week’s meeting, after expectations were for interest rates above 6% levels.

Expectations to raise interest by 50 basis points are not weak in turn, as some bet that the bank should be strict despite the recent slowdown in inflation to combat inflation, and it is currently priced in the markets at a rate close to 30, and therefore we are expected to witness strong movements if the bank decides to move towards 50 points. Basis .

American Job Market NFP

At the end of the week, the fourth Friday of August, and as is the case on the first Friday of every calendar month, the US Department of Commerce announces the Non-Farm Employment Numbers for the month of April, including the unemployment rate and the wage level.

Estimates indicate that the US economy may add 200,000 jobs in July after the economy added 209,000 jobs in June, with the unemployment rate stable at 3.6% and the monthly wage rate declining by 0.3%.

The importance of Friday’s reading of the employment numbers lies in the fact that it will directly affect the market’s expectations regarding the September meeting of the US Federal Reserve, which left the door open for monetary policy and left the upcoming data that will determine the bank’s direction and make sure whether to stop the tightening policy or continue.

In addition to the employment numbers, the ISM purchasing managers’ index numbers are expected to be released in the services and manufacturing sectors, in addition to the JOLTS job opportunities index, during the current week.

Inflation in the eurozone slowed to 5.3% in July

Eurostat estimates, or the statistical office of the European Union, issued a few moments ago, showed that annual inflation in the euro zone slowed down to 5.3% in July in the initial reading, compared to 5.5% in the June reading, matching expectations.

In details, prices in the energy sector declined at an annual rate of 6.1% in July, compared to a decline of 5.6% in May, while food prices rose by 10.8% from 11.7% in June, while the services index rose to 5.6% from 5.4%.

The main index, excluding food and energy prices, rose 5.5% in July, compared to 5.4 in June, revised to 5.5%, while it was expected to stabilize at 5.4%.

Separate data that we follow during the week

Monday

Chinese manufacturing sector

German retail sales and exports

inflation in the eurozone

Tuesday

Australian Reserve meeting

The final manufacturing PMI reading for the Eurozone, UK and USA

Vacancies and turnover rate

Wednesday

New Zealand job market

Employment in the US private sector

US crude oil inventories

Thursday

Inflation from Switzerland

The final services PMI from the Eurozone, UK and US

England central bank meeting

US unemployment benefits

Friday

German factory orders

Retail sales from the eurozone

Labor market figures from Canada US Labor Market Figures