The US dollar gained for the third week in a row

Markets are awaiting the New Zealand Reserve meeting and the Federal Reserve’s minutes

The Japanese yen is testing 135 levels and waiting for Ueda’s comments

Separate economic data

After the US and British inflation numbers, in addition to the Australian labor market figures and retail figures from the United Kingdom and the United States of America, topped the events of last week, the financial markets return in a new week and new economic figures that will cast a shadow over this week’s trading, topped by the Australian Central Bank meeting and the preferred inflation numbers of the Federal Reserve PCE and the Federal Reserve’s minutes This is in addition to some separate figures, and before we go over them, we will summarize the most important events of the past week.

The United States of America announced inflation figures for January, which were slower but better than expected. Annual inflation in the United States rose to 6.4% (fayezalajmi-4x.com)

On the other hand, UK inflation slowed to 10.5% in January on an annual basis, below market expectations. UK inflation slowed to 10.1% in January (fayezalajmi-4x.com)

US retail sales rose by 3% in January after declines in November and December US retail sales grew by 3% in January and the dollar rose (fayezalajmi-4x.com)

On the other hand, the Australian economy lost more than 11,000 jobs in January, and unemployment rates rose to their highest levels since July.

The unemployment rate rose to 3.7% in Australia, and the economy lost more than 11,000 jobs (fayezalajmi-4x.com)

The US producer price index, which is complementary to the inflation index, increased by 0.7% in January. The US producer price index exceeded expectations in January (fayezalajmi-4x.com)

And the markets interacted during the past week with the statements of the US Federal Reserve members, which came in support of a stronger tightening of monetary policy by the US Federal Reserve after inflation numbers and producer prices, the US dollar at its highest level in six weeks, supported by the statements of the Federal Reserve members (fayezalajmi-4x.com)

The general index of the US dollar recorded gains of 0.15% last week, with gains for the third week in a row, when closing at 103.85 levels, after it reduced its gains, which approached 1%, when testing 104.65 levels on Friday, in the last two trading sessions in the process of profit-taking after the strong rises in the markets, where The dollar benefited from the hawkish statements of the US Federal Reserve members last week (Pollard-Meester), which came in support of the US Federal Reserve’s rate hike by 50 basis points at its next March meeting.

Futures forecasts using the FEDWatch tool from CME now see a 50 basis point hike in interest rates at the March meeting by about 18%, compared to less than 10% at the beginning of last week, which leaves the US Federal Reserve’s minutes, which will be issued next Wednesday, and the statements of the Fed’s members this week, the focus of investors’ attention.

The movements of the pound sterling and the Japanese yen were the weakest during the past week with the rises of the US dollar, as the yen was affected by the appointment of Okda as governor of the Central Bank of Japan, losing more than 400 points and testing 135 levels, while the pound tested 1.1920 levels, before it rebounded in the closing session and closed at 1.2037 levels.

What will we watch this week?

Attention is directed during the sessions of this week to many economic data that will have a direct impact on currency movements, as the Central Bank of New Zealand meeting leads Wednesday in the Asian session, in addition to the US Federal Reserve minutes, PCE numbers, inflation numbers, retail sales from Canada, and manufacturing and services PMI numbers from the euro area and the United States United States of America events this week.

Reserve Bank of New Zealand

On Wednesday, in the Asian session, the Reserve Bank of New Zealand (RBNZ) will hold its first meeting this year, as expectations indicate that the New Zealand central bank will raise interest rates by 50 basis points, to reach 4.75%. The bank’s last meeting at the end of November of last year raised interest rates by 75 basis points to reach 4.25%, reaching their highest levels since 2009,

while estimates increased that interest levels would peak at 5.5% in the third quarter of the year, compared to 4.1% in the previous quarter. Previous estimates before the meeting.

Annual inflation in New Zealand slowed from 7.3% in the third quarter of last year to 7.2% in the fourth quarter in December, while the Bank had expected it to reach 7.5%, as the markets lowered their expectations of raising interest levels from 75 basis points to 50 points at Wednesday’s meeting.

With changing expectations in the New Zealand economy for inflation, the markets are now less priced for monetary tightening from the Bank of New Zealand than they were before the fourth quarter figures.

Therefore, the importance of the meeting will lie in whether the bank will reduce its expectations for peak interest levels or will it leave it at 5.5%, and will it revise its inflation expectations that it expected Last met at 7.5% in the first quarter and to 6.9% in the third quarter.

The markets began calculating peak interest levels in New Zealand at 5.30% after the recent inflation figures, which are lower than the bank’s levels at the last 5.50%, while you see 60% that the bank will start cutting interest rates in November, and accordingly, Wednesday’s meeting will carry with it a lot of New Zealand dollar movements in the period coming.ش

The Japanese yen awaits Ueda’s comments

Last week, the government of Japanese Prime Minister Kishida nominated Kazuo Ueda, a university professor and former board member of the Bank of Japan, as a new governor of the Bank of Japan, to succeed Kuroda, whose term will expire next April, and he now needs the approval of both houses of parliament for final approval.

The Japanese yen fell to its lowest level against the US dollar last week since December of last year at 135, as expectations rose that Ueda would continue the easing policy of the Japanese central bank for a longer period than expected.

During the current week’s sessions, the markets are anticipating a hearing session for the House of Representatives in Parliament at the end of the week’s trading, Friday, February 24, where it is expected that the new governor of the bank, Ueda, will speak for the first time after his nomination, as investors are waiting for his directions for the bank’s monetary policy and monitoring any hints regarding monetary tightening.

In addition to Ueda’s statements, markets are awaiting inflation figures from the world’s third largest economy, which is expected to rise to 4.2% in January, reaching its highest level since 1981.

The US Federal Reserve

records top the numbers of the United States of America By the end of Wednesday’s trading session, the US Federal Reserve is expected to release the minutes of its previous meeting on February 1, which is issued two weeks after each meeting, to clarify what took place in the meeting in which the Fed decided to raise interest rates by 25 basis points.

The Fed minutes are gaining importance after the statements of the US Federal Reserve members last week, which were strict and supportive of a stronger hike in interest rates in the previous meeting, and will shed light on the extent of the division of the Fed members in the last meeting over interest rates.

In addition to the Fed report, the United States of America is expected to announce a revised GDP growth reading for the fourth quarter of last year, which came at 2.9%, higher than market expectations of 2.5%, after a 3.2% growth in the third quarter. T

he Fed’s Preferred Inflation Index (PCE) is expected to be released on Friday at the end of the week, as the index is expected to rise to 0.5% on a monthly basis, to slow to 4.9% on an annual basis, and for the core index to slow to 4.1%.

Canada

The Canadian economy will announce its January inflation figures tomorrow, Tuesday, in the American session, where expectations indicate that core inflation may rise to 0.2% on a monthly basis, or 5.5% on an annual basis, from 5.4% in December.

PMI index

It is expected that the PMI will be announced in the services and manufacturing sectors from Australia, the Eurozone, the United Kingdom and the United States of America during the current week, as expectations indicate that we will witness growth in the two sectors in January, but it may remain below the levels of growth at 50 points, with the exception of the services index in the region euro.

Separate data that we follow during the week

Today, Monday, the US and Canadian markets will be on holiday, while the Producer Price Index will be released from New Zealand in the evening.

Tomorrow, Tuesday, we will follow the manufacturing and services PMI figures from Australia, Japan, the eurozone, and the United Kingdom, in addition to the ZEW index for measuring the business climate in the European session, while we will follow the Canadian inflation and retail sales numbers, and the manufacturing and services PMI from the United States of America in the American session.

On Wednesday, we will monitor the Australian wage index and the Reserve Bank of New Zealand meeting in the Asian session, while we will follow the German Ifo index in the European session, and the US Federal Reserve will lead the events of the American session.

Thursday, we will be with the final readings of inflation in the eurozone in the European session, while the revised growth figures from the US economy, weekly unemployment benefits, and oil inventories numbers will be released in the American session.

Japanese inflation numbers and Ueda’s testimony before Parliament lead the events of the Asian session at the end of the week’s trading on Friday, while we will monitor PCE consumer expenditure numbers in addition to US home sales in the American session