US dollar weekly declines

Three central banks lead the events of the week’s

session Risk appetite dominates market trading

Separate economic data

After the inflation numbers from the United States of America, the meeting of the European Central Bank, and the labor market numbers from Australia topped the events of last week, the financial markets return in a new week, and new economic figures will cast a shadow over this week’s trading, topped by the meetings of three central banks (the Federal Reserve, the Bank of England, and the Swiss National Bank) In addition to some separate figures, before we go back to them, we will summarize the most important events of the past week.

At the beginning of the week, US inflation figures for February came in line with expectations. Annual inflation in the United States rose to 6% in February (fayezalajmi-4x.com)

On the other hand, the data showed that retail sales in the United States fell below expectations, and the producer price index decreased by 0.1%. US retail sales fell by 0.4% in February (fayezalajmi-4x.com)

The Australian economy added about 64,000 jobs in February, while unemployment rates declined. The unemployment rate is declining in Australia, and the economy added about 64,000 jobs in February (fayezalajmi-4x.com)

The European Central Bank raised interest rates by 50 basis points, as expected The European Central Bank raised interest rates by 50 basis points (fayezalajmi-4x.com)

The general index of the US dollar recorded losses of 0.33% last week, to conclude the weekly session at 103.83 levels, after testing 103.41 levels in the middle of the week, as the US dollar was affected last week between the rise and fall of risk appetite in the markets due to the banking crisis, in addition to the changes in market expectations regarding the Fed’s movements this week. current.

The Japanese yen’s movements were the strongest during the past week, benefiting from its being one of the most important safe-haven currencies and the declines of the US dollar, to rise by more than 300 points against the US dollar, and it ended the week at 131.84 levels, and it is now trading at 130.80 levels.

What will we watch this week?

Attention is directed during the sessions of this week to many economic data that will have a direct impact on currency movements, as it leads the meetings of three central banks (the Australian Reserve, the Bank of Canada and the Bank of Japan), in addition to the testimony of Jerome Powell, the US Federal President before the Finance Committee in Congress, and the numbers of the American and Canadian labor market and rates UK growth events this week.

Federal Reserve Bank

The markets are awaiting the next Wednesday’s meeting, where the Federal Reserve is expected to raise interest rates by 25 basis points, to reach 5%.

Inflation figures in the United States of America increased by 0.4% in February, after an increase of 0.5% in February, while the main index excluding food and energy prices rose to 0.5%, compared to 0.4% in January. On the other hand, the annual index increased over the past 12 months to 6.0% from 6.4% in January, while the annual basic index, excluding food and energy prices, fell to 5.5% in February from 5.6%.

After Jerome Powell’s testimony before Congress in early March, market expectations rose that the US Federal Reserve would move towards stronger tightening of monetary policy in March.

Expectations of a hike rose by 50 basis points to more than 80% before the banking crisis represented by Silicon Valley Bank came to raise market fears, especially since the crisis It came after the strong rise in US interest rates.

Fears of contagion and turmoil from a banking crisis that might hit the US and global economy pushed expectations of US interest rates to a decline, as futures expectations by the CME FEDWatch tool now see a 25 basis point hike in interest rates at the March meeting, by about 62%, while it witnessed a radical change, as expectations rose The US Federal Reserve kept interest rates unchanged to 38%, after they were out of the equation until just two weeks ago, and expectations rose to reduce interest rates by about 1% until the end of the year, to more than 32%.

The slowdown in inflation in February and the repercussions of the banking crisis raised these expectations, and therefore it is expected that the bank will raise interest rates by 25 basis points at its meeting on Wednesday, while attention is directed to monitor the statements of the Federal Reserve Chairman and the points scheme for the future of interest rates from the members of the bank to be the main driver for the markets during this week .

Bank of England

Thursday, March 23, the Bank of England will hold its meeting to discuss monetary policy developments, as expectations indicate that the bank will raise interest rates by 25 basis points, to 4.25%.

At the bank’s last meeting in February, the bank announced that it was approaching a temporary halt to raising interest rates after raising them about ten times in a row. banks.

Inflation figures from the UK are expected to be released 24 hours before the Bank’s meeting after the Consumer Price Index grew by 10.1% in the 12 months ending in January compared to 10.5% in December while it is expected to rise to 9.9% in February.

The main index excluding food and energy prices rose to 5.8% in January from 6.3%, while it is expected to rise to 5.7% in February. It is also not inconceivable that the bank will stop the pace of raising interest rates and keep them at 4% at this week’s meeting, especially if the inflation figures on Wednesday came less than market expectations, which are far from the peak that was recorded in October at 11.1%, with the continuation of the banking crisis and its widening wave.

Swiss National Central

The Swiss National Bank will meet next Thursday to discuss monetary policy developments, as it is estimated that the bank will raise interest rates by 50 basis points, to reach 1.50%.

The data of the Federal Statistics Office (FSO) had shown that the Consumer Price Index (CPI), which measures inflation in Switzerland, rose to 0.7% in February from 0.6% in a reading, while the index rose to 3.4% on an annual basis.

Risk appetite moves the markets

Market trading has been affected since last week by the impact of risk appetite, which has become declining with the rise in concerns about the banking crisis, as safe-haven currencies and assets rise, and high-risk currencies decline, as the yellow metal exceeded $2,000 levels this morning.

Late yesterday, Sunday, UBS announced the purchase of Credit Suisse Bank in a press conference presented by the Swiss President, Minister of Finance and Chairman of the Board of Directors of the two banks, as the value of the deal amounted to more than three billion dollars, as the Swiss National Bank stated that it had found a solution to secure financial stability and protect Swiss economy.

On the other hand, five central banks, in addition to the Federal Reserve, announced coordinated measures to enhance liquidity and arrangements to ease pressures on the global financial system, in an announcement that came before the opening of the markets to support risk appetite in the markets.

Separate data that we follow during the week

Monday

German producer price index The trade balance of the eurozone

Tuesday ZEW Sentiment Index for Germany and the Eurozone Canadian inflation figures Statements by European Central Bank President Christine Lagarde US home sales

Wednesday UK inflation figures Crude oil stocks US Federal Reserve meeting

Thursday Swiss National Bank meeting Bank of England meeting US weekly unemployment benefits

Friday Inflation figures from Japan Manufacturing and Services PMI for the Eurozone and the United Kingdom Retail sales from the United Kingdom Retail sales from Canada US Durable Goods Orders Purchasing Managers’ Index (PMI) services and manufacturing from the United States of America