Global markets witnessed strong movements last week, which is considered one of the most important weeks in the third quarter of this year, after the US Federal Reserve announced its monetary policy and issued economic expectations in the coming period, as the Federal Reserve kept interest rates unchanged, as expectations were at current levels of 0.25%, and maintain The current program of its asset purchases of $120 billion per month, with its holding of $80 billion of Treasury bonds and $40 billion of mortgaged securities, and renewed its commitment to using all tools to support the US economy in these circumstances until employment and inflation goals are achieved.

The expectations of the majority of the committee’s members came from policy makers in the Federal Reserve that interest levels may rise twice by the end of the year 2023, in contrast to the last meeting of the US Federal Reserve that witnessed a release of economic forecasts in March, which formed support for the US dollar.

The US dollar purchases continued for three consecutive sessions until the end of the week, as investor confidence in the improvement of the US economy increased after members of the Federal Reserve raised their expectations of an improvement in the economy, as the bank raised its forecast for the growth of the gross domestic product for the US economy this year to 7%, compared to 6. 5% in March expectations, and accordingly the positive outlook for the US dollar continued.

The weekly COT report issued by the CFTC showed an increase in the concentrations of long US dollar contracts during the past week, which reflects investors’ confidence in the US dollar’s continued rise. The index concerned with measuring the dollar against a basket of currencies (Dollar Index) recorded increases of about 1.80% when it closed the last sessions of last week at levels of 92.29, its highest level since April, recording weekly gains that are the largest since March of last year 2020 and is now trading at levels. During the current week, attention will turn to many economic data that will be announced from the United States of America, the European region, Australia, New Zealand and Canada during the current week. The Bank of England: Next Thursday, June 24, and in the European period, the Bank of England will announce its monetary policy and interest rates, in addition to the recommendations of bank members on the bank’s purchases of assets, as the Bank of England is expected to keep its monetary policy unchanged and keep interest rates at current levels 0.10%. after Andrew Bailey, Governor of the Bank of England and members of the Monetary Policy Committee of the Bank are facing the problem of high inflation, like the rest of the central banks around the world, where the consumer price index, which is concerned with measuring inflation on an annual basis, according to data released by the Office for National Statistics last week, to 2.1%, compared to 1.6% In April, exceeding expectations that indicated a growth of 1.8%, while the main index, excluding food and energy prices, rose by about 2% compared to 1.3% in April. These rises in inflation may push the bank to take a decision to tighten monetary policy and start raising interest rates, especially if inflationary pressures continue to persist in the coming months with the reopening of the economy in the United Kingdom. Jerome Powell’s testimony: On Tuesday, in the American session, markets will await the testimony of US Federal Reserve Chairman Jerome Powell before the Senate subcommittee, and accordingly, the markets are awaiting any new details regarding the gradual tapering of the $120 billion monthly asset purchase program, as expectations so far indicate that the tapering will begin in December and any hints from Powell regarding this matter and that it is possible that the decrease will start in September may support the rises of the US dollar in the coming period. Miscellaneous data during the week: In the American session on Monday, we will watch the new home price index from Canada in addition to statements by European Central Bank Governor Lagarde and US Federal Reserve member Williams. On Tuesday, the Richmond manufacturing index and US home sales will be released in addition to the testimony of Jerome Powell and a speech by US Fed member Dudley in the US session. On Wednesday, the preliminary reading of the PMI services and manufacturing index will be released for Australia, Japan, the eurozone countries, Britain and the United States of America, in addition to the final reading of the German Ifo business climate index. Thursday, the markets will be on a date with the Bank of England meeting, as we mentioned previously, while the USA will release the durable goods orders index, weekly unemployment benefits and the final reading of GDP growth for the first quarter of this year. Friday will be released from the United States of America personal income and personal spending data as well as the revised reading from the University of Michigan inflation expectations and consumer confidence. You can view the full economic calendar on our website from the link المفكرة الإقتصادية (fayezalajmi-4x.com)