A look at the main events of the past week

Markets are waiting for four central banks

Canadian Parliament elections lead the movements of the Canadian dollar

Various data will be released during the week

After a week full of events and economic data affecting market movements, the US dollar ended the week with gains of more than 0.60% and more than 0.95% from the lowest level tested by the general index of the US dollar before closing the week at 93.22 levels, its highest closing level since the 20th of last August, and trading morning Today, Monday, with the opening, up by about 0.8% at 93.31 levels.

And in a quick look at the most important events of the past week, the week began with disappointing data from the US economy, which was represented by a decline in the CPI consumer price index, which measures urban inflation, by 0.3.% in August, after rising by about 0.5% in July, to come below expectations that indicated a decline to 0.4 % .

Inflation in the United States of America declines in August – Fayez Al-Ajmi (fayezalajmi-4x.com)

On the other hand, inflation in the United Kingdom rose at a pace that exceeded market expectations to reach 3.2% in the 12 months ending in August, compared to 2% in the July reading, exceeding expectations that indicated a rise to 2.9%.

UK inflation is at an all-time high and the pound is on the rise – Fayezalajmi (fayezalajmi-4x.com)

In turn, inflation in Canada also rose at the fastest pace since March 2003 to 4.1% on an annual basis in August, compared to 3.7% in the July reading.

Annual inflation in Canada records the fastest growth rate since March 2003 – Fayez Al-Ajmi (fayezalajmi-4x.com)

Economic data issued by Australia and New Zealand topped the events of the Asian period last Thursday, as the gross domestic product in New Zealand increased by 2.8% in the second quarter of this year ending in June, compared to 1.6% in the first quarter before it was adjusted and revised to 1.4%, when it was Expectations indicate that the New Zealand economy will grow by about 1.1%. .

The New Zealand economy grew by 2.8% in the second quarter – Fayez Al-Ajmi (fayezalajmi-4x.com) The Australian labor market data was mixed, as unemployment rates fell to 4.5% in August, compared to 4.6%, on the other hand, about 146.300 thousand jobs were lost.

The Australian labor market lost more than 145,000 jobs in August – Fayez Al-Ajmi (fayezalajmi-4x.com)

The retail sales data and manufacturing index for Philadelphia and New York supported the gains of the US dollar in the last sessions of the week, as the US retail sales, which were released Thursday, unexpectedly rose in August to 0.7%, after it had been expected to decline by -0.8, compared to the July reading of -1.1 % before being adjusted to -1.8 %, bringing sales in dollars to 618.7 billion dollars.

On the other hand, manufacturing activity in the Philadelphia region continued to expand in September, according to the index, which rose by 11 points to 30.7, better than expectations that indicated a rise to 18.9.

The Empire State survey that measures manufacturing in New York also showed a rise in manufacturing activity in the region to 34.3 in September, compared to 18.3 in August’s reading.

The US Consumer Confidence Index released by the University of Michigan on Friday concluded with economic news related to the US dollar during the past week. US consumer confidence rises, but below expectations, and the dollar is heading to record gains for the second week in a row – Fayez Al-Ajmi (fayezalajmi-4x.com)

A look at the main events of this week This week, attention is focused on the central bank meetings, as the US Federal Reserve, the Bank of England, the Bank of Japan and the Swiss National Bank lead this week’s events, in addition to many miscellaneous economic data.

The US Federal Reserve, the most important events of the week Markets are awaiting the US Federal Reserve’s meeting with impatience since the disappointing data from the labor market in August, as markets are still waiting for the US Federal Reserve to determine the details of its next step, which is to gradually start reducing the stimulus program amounting to 120 billion dollars per month. Before the labor market data in August, expectations for a gradual start in the September meeting were at their highest, but after the data came below market expectations, in addition to the decline in inflation in August, the US Federal Reserve is expected to postpone the announcement of the decision until the October meeting and the gradual start in November.

The US Federal Reserve will begin to reduce its program during the current year, and the question is when, not if, and this matter justifies the rises of the US dollar last week, and it is not excluded that it will extend its gains until the meeting whose results will be announced on Wednesday at 10:00 Mecca time.

The Federal Reserve’s quarterly economic outlook report will also release its members’ expectations for growth and inflation. Bank of England The Bank of England will meet next Thursday to announce its monetary policy and interest rates, as markets await the bank’s reaction from a rise in inflation to 3.2% in the 12 months ending in August, compared to 2% in the July reading.

The Bank of England and its President Bailey, at the last meeting, expected inflation to rise this year to 4% temporarily and to decline to 2.5% next year, and therefore inflation levels of 3.2% are considered not very worrying on paper so far, but with high expectations that inflation will exceed 4.2 levels % by the end of the year, the Bank of England may come under pressure in the coming period, but the Bank is not expected to change its monetary policy and interest rates at Thursday’s meeting.

Bank of Japan

The Bank of Japan, in turn, will meet in the period between September 21-22 and its monetary policy will be announced on the morning of Wednesday, September 22nd, as the Bank is not expected to change its monetary policy at this week’s meeting and to maintain negative interest levels and control the yield curve.

Inflation in Japan, unlike the rest of the other central banks, is at low levels of 0.2% and far from the bank’s target of 2%, but with the slowdown in economic indicators in August from the manufacturing and service sector affected by supply chain turmoil and the re-emergence of the new delta breed, the bank may warn of negative risks to growth The economic and attic is expected to indicate that the accommodative policies will remain for a longer period.

Swiss Bank

The Swiss central bank will announce its monetary policy next Thursday in the European period, as the bank is expected to maintain the lowest interest rate in the world at -0.75%, especially after the bank raised its inflation forecast for the current year at the last meeting to 0.4% and to 0.6% next year.

. Miscellaneous data during the week In addition to the meetings of the four central banks that the markets are awaiting this week, the markets will also monitor the many separate data that will be released during the week.

Today, Monday, the Chinese and Japanese markets will be on holiday, while Canadians will go to the polls in an election called by Prime Minister Justin Trudeau two years ago. Today’s sessions are based on the issuance of the preliminary results of the elections.

Tomorrow, Tuesday, the results of the monetary policy committee meeting of the Australian Reserve in the previous meeting will be released.

Thursday, the preliminary reading of the PMI manufacturing and services index for Australia, the eurozone, Britain, in addition to the United States, the US weekly unemployment benefits and Canadian retail sales will be announced.

On Friday, durable goods orders and home sales will be released from the US economy.