A look at the most important events of the past week
A sudden closed meeting of the US Federal Reserve today
Inflation returns from the gateway to the United Kingdom, Canada and China
We will follow up on different data during the week
In conjunction with the absence of central bank meetings this week in mid-February, the markets are awaiting many economic data from the United States, the United Kingdom, Canada, Australia and the eurozone, which will have a direct impact on the movements of the currency markets, but before we look at them, we will quickly try to remember the events of the past week.
As we mentioned in the last weekly report, calm and anticipation prevailed in the markets at the beginning of the week with the absence of important economic data and anticipation of the most important events of the week represented in the inflation figures, which did not disappoint expectations and came to raise the temperature of the markets as inflation in the United States of America exceeded expectations in January annual inflation in the United States of America A new high level and the dollar reacts positively (fayezalajmi-4x.com)
to raise the expectations of US futures contracts, according to the FedWatch tool of CME, after the data for the increase rate by 50 basis points in the March meeting to more than 70 after it was below 20% before the inflation figures.
The statements of US Federal Reserve President James Bullard were one of the most important drivers for the markets last week, as Bullard indicated that he supports the US Federal Reserve raising interest rates by half a point in the March meeting and to reach 1% by July.
Inflation figures alone were enough to raise the state of panic in the markets, to raise the yield on US treasury bonds, causing strong and violent movements at the end of last week in the stock, currency and commodity markets.
The general index of the US dollar, after a calm in the first three sessions of the week, managed to rise in the last two sessions after the inflation figures, to conclude the week at 96.00 levels, with gains of about 0.60%.
The minutes of the US Federal Reserve and many separate data are leading this week’s events
During this week’s sessions, the markets are awaiting many economic data and statements from heads and members of central banks, in addition to geopolitical events and developments, as skirmishes between Russia and Ukraine topped the scene again with the intensification of statements and the escalation of the global crisis. The US Federal Reserve minutes without effect and a surprise meeting today for the Fed It is scheduled to announce the minutes of the US Federal Reserve for its previous meeting two weeks ago on Wednesday in the American session, but this minutes has become worthless now due to the changes and developments that occurred in the past week of a rise in inflation prices in a way that exceeded expectations and thus became unimportant for the markets. We recall that the US Federal Reserve called for an emergency, urgent, and closed board meeting today, Monday, to review and determine the interest rates charged by the reserve banks.
This sudden and closed meeting of the Federal Reserve reflects the pressure on the US Federal Reserve from the accelerating rise in inflation, as the last closed and sudden meeting of the Federal Reserve dates back to 2015.
The expectations of the markets and futures contracts that the US Federal Reserve will raise interest rates by half a point in the March meeting has become a very large percentage, in addition to the high expectations that we will witness about 5 to 6 rate hikes during the current year. Inflation returns from the gateway to the United Kingdom, Canada and China It is expected that the inflation data for Britain, Canada and China this week with the continued focus of the world towards global inflation data, especially after inflation exceeded expectations in the United States of America last week.
UK inflation is expected to stabilize next Wednesday at 5.4% in January, unchanged, while core inflation is expected to rise to 4.3%. On the other hand, inflation is expected to decline in the second economy in the world (the Chinese economy) to 1% on an annual basis, compared to 1.5%.
The complementary part of inflation represented by the Producer Price Index (PPI) from the United States of America is expected to be announced on Tuesday evening. The monthly index is expected to rise to 0.5% and the annual index to rise by 10.1%.
From Canada, annual inflation is also expected to rise to 5.7% in January compared to 4.8% in December’s reading, while inflation is expected to rise on a monthly basis to 0.5%.
Miscellaneous data that we will follow during the week
Today, Monday, in the American session, we will follow statements by US Federal Reserve member Bullard, in addition to statements by European Central Bank Governor Lagarde.
On Tuesday, we will follow the minutes of the Reserve Bank of Australia meeting two weeks ago in the Asian session, while labor market data will be released from Britain, the ZEW index from Germany and the euro area, and the growth numbers for the euro area in the European session. In the American session, we will follow the American producer price index and the Empire State Index.
On Wednesday, we will follow inflation figures from China in the Asian session, while inflation figures will be released from the United Kingdom at the beginning of the European session. In the American period, we will monitor Canadian inflation figures and the retail sales index from the United States of America. At the end of the session, the minutes of the US Federal Reserve meeting will be announced for its meeting two weeks ago.
Thursday, Australia will announce labor market data (change in employment and unemployment rate) in the Asian session, while unemployment benefits numbers, Philadelphia manufacturing index and home sales will be announced from the United States of America in the American session.
Retail sales from the United Kingdom in the morning and Canadian retail sales in the evening, in addition to statements by a number of members of the US Federal Reserve (Wheeler – Williams – Brainard). Friday is the last session of the week, we will be watching
05/11/2024
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