Attention is turning this evening, Thursday, March 10th, towards the two most important events this week, as the European Central Bank will hold its regular meeting today, Thursday, while the United States of America will announce inflation figures for the month of February.

European Central Bank

Members of the European Central Bank meet this evening to discuss monetary policy and take decisions regarding interest rates, as the markets expect not to change monetary policy at today’s meeting and to maintain zero interest rates.

The European Central Bank is the last bank expected to raise interest rates, as the bank is expected to wait until the last quarter of the year for the first rate hike in more than a decade.

Prior to the Russian invasion of Ukraine, expectations were that the first move from the European Central would come before the end of the year and might be in the third quarter, especially after the record inflation rises after the consumer price index reached 5.8% in February, but these expectations fell by half to the last quarter of the year after Russian invasion and rising uncertainty.

The Russian-Ukrainian war directly affects the European region and thus the expectations of inflation and growth for the euro area, where investors will focus in Thursday’s meeting, especially on Christine Lagarde in the press conference on the Bank’s expectations of growth and inflation in light of this crisis and how the Bank will balance the risks of high inflation and weak expected growth caused by the war .

The euro has recorded gains against the US dollar by more than 130 points since the beginning of this week, taking advantage of the US dollar’s declines to trade at 1.1058 levels.

US inflation

data The Consumer Price Index (CPI) from the United States of America, which is concerned with measuring inflation, will be announced today, Thursday, as estimates indicate a rise in annual inflation in February to 7.9% or 8%, as the Russian-Ukrainian conflict caused a change in expectations and prospects for a period of high inflation.

Rise in commodity prices, such as oil prices, which are recording high levels compared to the period before the Russian war, gas prices, and the continuation of the supply chain crisis are all factors that support the rise in US inflation to levels that are the highest in forty years.

The main index, excluding food and energy prices, is also expected to rise to 6.5% in February, at its highest level since 1982, with the rise in the prices of rents, cars, airline tickets and housing.

In his statements yesterday evening, Wednesday, the White House announced that the White House expects the inflation figures to come today with a high result. Expectations of a US interest rate hike at the March meeting are still at 92% over a quarter point hike according to CME’s FedWatch tool, but any hikes that exceed expectations for inflation will raise expectations for a 50 basis point hike at the March meeting.

The general index of the US dollar is trading at levels of 98.05 this morning, Thursday, after strong declines recorded yesterday, Wednesday.