The US dollar declined for the fifth week in a row

OPEC confuses the opening markets

The Australian and New Zealand Bank meeting is the most important event of the week’s session

US labor market numbers conclude the week’s end

Separate economic data

After inflation figures from Australia and the eurozone topped last week’s events, financial markets return in a new week and new economic figures will cast a shadow over this week’s trading, led by the meeting of the Banks of Australia and New Zealand to discuss monetary policy and set interest rates, in addition to labor market numbers from the United States of America and some separate numbers and before Let’s go over it, we’ll summarize the most important events of the past week.

At the beginning of the week, US consumer confidence numbers came in better than expected. US consumer confidence rose in March and the dollar stabilized (fayezalajmi-4x.com).

Inflation in Australia slowed in February reading to 6.8% Inflation in Australia slowed in February and supported the Australian Reserve’s halt in raising interest rates (fayezalajmi-4x.com).

Inflation figures from the eurozone came in below expectations. Inflation in the eurozone is slowing, supported by the decline in energy prices in March (fayezalajmi-4x.com).

We concluded the markets with the numbers of the Consumer Spending Index or the Fed’s Preferred Inflation Index. The Fed’s Preferred Inflation Index rose to 4.6% in February (fayezalajmi-4x.com).

The general index of the US dollar recorded losses for the fourth week in a row, by 0.38% last week, to conclude the weekly session at 102.28 levels, as the week was calm in terms of economic data and statements, in addition to the recession of banking crisis fears, so that the pound sterling topped the currency gains by testing the highest levels in two months, the highest levels of 1 .24.

What will we watch this week? Attention is directed during the sessions of this week to many economic data that will have a direct impact on currency movements, as the meetings of the central banks (the New Zealand Reserve and the Australian Reserve), in addition to labor market numbers, lead the events of this week.

RBA Reserve Bank of Australia

During the Asian session, tomorrow, Tuesday, the markets are looking forward to the meeting of the Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA) to discuss its monetary policy and set the interest rate, as expectations in the markets are divided between raising interest rates by 25 basis points tomorrow, Tuesday, to bring interest rates to 3.85%, and between keeping them at current levels of 3.60%.

The figures issued by the Australian Institute of Statistics (ABS) last week showed that the consumer price index, which measures inflation in Australia, rose by 6.8% on an annual basis in February, compared to 7.4% in January, which came below expectations, which indicated an increase to 7.2.

The slowdown in inflation figures in February may be supportive of the bank’s stopping from tightening its monetary policy, especially since the bank hinted at its last meeting that it is expected to temporarily stop raising interest rates to monitor the developments of the previous hike, but at the same time labor market numbers from Australia may put pressure on the central bank Especially since unemployment rates fell to their lowest levels in fifty years in the February reading to 3.5%, after rising to 3.7% in January, while wage prices rose to 0.8% and 3.3% quarterly and on an annual basis, the fastest increase in more than a decade.

. Reserve Bank of New Zealand RBNZ

The Reserve Bank of New Zealand meets on Wednesday morning in the Asian session amid expectations that the bank will raise interest rates by 25 basis points to reach 5% at their highest level since December 2008, to reduce the pace of tightening, which ranged between 75 basis points and 50 basis points in the recent period.

Inflation rates in New Zealand are at their highest levels in three decades so far, at 7.2%, according to its latest reading, a level that is still far from the bank’s target, but high expectations that the New Zealand economy will enter a recession after contracting by 0.6% in the fourth quarter of last year may put pressure on On the bank, it reduces monetary policy tightening, and is heading to raise it by 25 basis points, the lowest increase since February 2022.

The bank sees the peak of interest rates at 5.5%, i.e. two hikes by 25 basis points, after Wednesday’s meeting, but in light of the recent conditions of the banking sector, does the bank still see this rate, or will it be satisfied with another hike in May, and the peak remains at 5.25%, and the answer to this question will be the focus of the dollar’s movements New Zealander. Weekly unemployment during the week.

NFP Labor Market Numbers

The US Labor Department is expected to announce the non-farm employment figures for March by the end of the week’s trading on Friday. Estimates indicate that the US economy added about 235 thousand jobs in March, after adding 311 thousand jobs in February, that the unemployment rate stabilizes at 3.6%, and that wages rise on a monthly basis to 0.3%.

Employment figures are gaining importance amid conflicting market expectations regarding the Federal Reserve’s moves in its meeting on May 3rd, with expectations converging between a 25 basis point hike and a halt to raising interest rates.

Friday’s numbers separate, albeit slightly, between market expectations. In addition to the employment figures, the ISM manufacturing index is expected to be announced today, Monday, and the services index, on Wednesday.

OPEC confuse market movement

s The markets witnessed sharp fluctuations at the opening of today, Monday, in the Asian session, after the decision of the Kingdom of Saudi Arabia and some OPEC countries to make a voluntary cut of more than 2 million barrels of oil, starting from the first of May, so that crude prices rose by more than 5% at the opening, while the US dollar rose by more than 0.40%, with rising concerns about the return of inflationary pressures with the rise in crude prices and the change in the US Federal Reserve’s plans for its monetary policy.

Inflation in Switzerland slows in March

Figures issued by the Swiss Federal Statistical Office (FSO) moments ago showed that inflation in Switzerland rose to 0.2% in March on a monthly basis, compared to 0.7% in the February reading, coming below expectations that indicated a growth of about 0.4%, while the annual index in turn rose to 2.9% in February. March .

Separate data that we follow during the week

The most important data of the week Monday Retail sales from Australia Inflation from Switzerland OPEC monthly meeting US Manufacturing PMI from ISM

Tuesday Reserve Bank of Australia meeting German trade balance Job vacancies and job turnover from USA

Wednesday Reserve Bank of New Zealand meeting jobs in the US private sector US services PMI for ISM Crude oil stocks

Thursday German industrial production US weekly unemployment benefits Employment figures from Canada

Friday Labor market figures from the USA in the non-farm sector (NFP).