US inflation numbers and the Federal Reserve report are the most important events of the current week

Will the Bank of Canada be the first bank to cut interest?

Separate economic data

With the absence of most of the global financial markets today, Monday, on the occasion of the Easter holiday, attention is directed during the sessions of this week to many economic data that will have a direct impact on currency movements, as US and Chinese inflation numbers, the Central Bank of Canada meeting, the US Federal Reserve minutes, US retail sales figures and growth figures from UK and Labor Market figures from Australia this week’s events.

US inflation and the Federal Reserve

The United States of America is expected to announce inflation figures for the month of March during next Wednesday’s trading session, as inflation, represented by the US consumer price index, is expected to slow to 0.2% in March, and by 5.2% on an annual basis, from 6% in February, at the lowest level of the index.

Since August 2021. After the numbers of the labor market in the past markets, the American Fed has nothing left but the inflation figures that will be issued on Wednesday to confirm or the same raising of profits by 25 basis points for the last time in its next week on the third of May, and accordingly, the figures for the inflation will be on a high level of work.

Forecasts for future contracts by the FEDWatch tool from CME now see an increase of 25 basis points in the May meeting, by 63%, compared to less than 50% before the employment figures, so that interest rates peak at 5.25%, while it sees a reduction in interest rates in the fourth and last quarter of this year by nearly From 100 basis points.

In addition to the inflation numbers, the US Federal Reserve is expected to release the minutes of its previous meeting two weeks ago, which witnessed a 25 basis point hike in interest rates, as investors will monitor the members’ attitudes regarding the future of interest rates and whether the possibility of lowering interest rates was discussed or not.

Central Bank of Canada

After keeping interest rates unchanged at its previous meeting in early March, as the first central bank to stop the process of tightening monetary policy, the Bank of Canada is heading to keep interest rates for the second consecutive meeting unchanged at 4.5%.

The bank confirmed in its last meeting that it will continue to evaluate economic developments and the impact of recent increases in interest rates, and it is ready to increase interest rates again if necessary to return inflation to the target of 2%.

In the middle of this year. Annual inflation figures fell to 5.2% in February from 5.9% in January, decelerating for the second month in a row, which supports the bank’s view towards matching expectations and inflation approaching the bank’s target, which opens the door to an expected rate cut soon from the Central Bank of Canada.

The Bank’s interest statement is expected to accompany the economic outlook for growth and inflation in the Quarterly Monetary Policy Report.

Risk appetite

The appetite for risk in the markets during the current week will also depend on the disclosures of companies, institutions and banks that will start announcing their quarterly results for the first quarter during the current week, as JP Morgan, Wells Fargo, Citigroup and Black Rock are expected to announce their results during this week.

Separate economic data

Monday

Consumer Confidence Index of Japan Remarks by Fed Member Williams

Tuesday

Inflation figures from China Retail sales from the eurozone

Wednesday

Inflation figures from the USA Remarks by Bank of England Governor Bailey Bank of Canada meeting US Federal Reserve

Thursday

Labor market figures from Australia (employment and unemployment rate) growth from the UK Producer price index and unemployment benefits from the USA Remarks by Bank of Canada Governor MacClem

Friday

Inflation figures from France Retail sales and consumer confidence index from America