The dollar is falling weekly after gains for three sessions
The Reserve Bank of Australia and the Central Bank of Canada on top of the week’s events
Separate economic data
After inflation figures from Australia and the eurozone, in addition to figures from the US labor market, topped the events of last week, the financial markets will return in a new week and new economic figures will cast a shadow over the trading of the current week, topped by the meeting of the Canadian and Australian central banks. Before we go back to it, we will summarize the most important events of the past week.
At the beginning of the week, inflation figures from Australia came out of expectations. Inflation in Australia rose to 6.8% in April (fayezalajmi-4x.com)
On the other hand, inflation in the eurozone slowed in April, inflation in the eurozone slowed to 6.1% in May (fayezalajmi-4x.com)
The US economy announced that it added 339 thousand jobs in May, while the unemployment rate rose to 3.7%. The US economy added 339 thousand jobs in May, and unemployment rose to 3.7% (fayezalajmi-4x.com)
The US dollar general index recorded losses of 0.20% last week, to break its series of gains that lasted for three weeks in a row, to conclude the weekly session at 103.95 levels, after testing 103.30 levels in the middle of the week, as the US dollar was affected last week by the decline in uncertainty in the markets from the ceiling crisis The US debt after reaching an agreement, in addition to the decline in expectations of the US Federal Reserve raising interest rates at its next meeting in mid-June.
Futures forecasts using CME’s FEDWatch tool now see interest rates raised by 25 basis points at the June meeting, by only about 20%, after it was above 70% levels early last week.
What are the markets waiting for?
Attention is directed during the sessions of this week to many economic data that will have a direct impact on the movements of the currencies, as the meetings of the Central Bank of Canada and the Reserve Bank of Australia lead with the US services index, Australian growth, Canadian labor market numbers and Chinese inflation issues leading the events of this week.
Reserve Bank of Australia
The markets are looking forward to tomorrow, Tuesday, in the Asian session, the meeting of the Reserve Bank of Australia, where expectations indicate that the bank will keep monetary policy unchanged and interest rates at 3.85%. Inflation figures in April, and according to figures issued last week, witnessed a rise in the consumer price index by 6.8% on an annual basis, compared to 6.3% in March, which is higher than expected. March
. The Australian Bank had surprised the markets at its meeting in early May and raised interest rates by 25 basis points after keeping them unchanged in April, citing the return of inflation to rise, and therefore it is not excluded that we will witness another surprise tomorrow, Tuesday, by raising interest rates by 25 basis points, especially after the recent rise. In inflation and its first increase since last December.
Central Bank of Canada
The Central Bank of Canada is expected to meet on Wednesday evening to discuss monetary policy developments, as the bank is expected to continue to keep its monetary policy and interest rates unchanged on Wednesday at 4.50% for the third consecutive meeting.
The bank has kept the current interest rates unchanged since January 25th and continues to evaluate its previous monetary policy, despite the concern expressed by Bank Governor Macklem on more than one occasion about the rising risks of escalating inflation.
The consumer price index, or inflation, according to the latest figures, rose by 0.7% on a monthly basis in April from 0.5% in March, while the annual index rose to 4.4% from 4.3%, and the annual general index rose to 5.7%, while the economy added about 41,000 jobs in April, better than Expectations Unemployment rates stabilized at 5% and the economy grew by 3.1% in the first quarter, exceeding expectations.
All of these economic figures stem from the flexibility of economic expectations for growth and the continued strength of the labor market.
Some analysts’ expectations are rising in the housing market that the bank will break its current policy of temporarily stopping interest rates and raising them at Wednesday’s meeting, but the percentage is still small compared to the expectation to keep it, but expectations rise more in the July meeting with pricing approaching of the 60%.
Separate data that we follow during the week
Monday
Inflation from Switzerland
The final reading of the services index from the eurozone
Statements by the President of the European Central Bank
US Services Index
Tuesday
Reserve Bank of Australia meeting
Eurozone retail sales
HiFi Index from Canada
Wednesday
growth from Australia
German industrial production
Bank of Canada meeting
US crude oil inventories
Thursday
The ultimate growth reading from Japan
Read the review of growth for the eurozone
US unemployment benefits
Friday
inflation from China
Labor market figures from Canada
24/12/2024
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