For the second month in a row, the Monetary Policy Board of the Reserve Bank of Australia decided to keep monetary policy and interest rates at 4.10%, contrary to expectations that indicated a 25 basis point hike in the bank’s meeting that was held on Tuesday morning, the first of August.
And the interest statement issued by the bank stated that interest rates have increased by 4% since May of last year and are working to establish a more sustainable balance between supply and demand, but keeping them now will provide more time to assess the impact of previous increases.
The inflation rate in Australia is decreasing, but it is very high at 6%, as commodity prices have declined, but the prices of many services are rising rapidly, but the central expectations indicate that inflation will continue to decline, reaching about 3% in the next year 2024, and it will return within the target range by the end of the year 2025.
With regard to growth, the economy is growing at a period below the general trend, and it is expected to continue for a while, as household consumption is considered weak in addition to residential investment. However, central expectations see a growth in GDP of about 1.75% during the year 2024, while unemployment is expected to rise to about 4.5%.
The bank affirmed that it is committed to returning inflation to the bank’s target range of 2-3%, and that there may be a need for more tightening in monetary policy to ensure that inflation returns to the target within a reasonable time frame, but that depends on upcoming data.
The markets are awaiting the bank’s quarterly forecasts on monetary policy, growth and inflation at the end of this week’s trading on Friday.
The reaction of the Australian dollar was negative, and the pair fell by more than 50 points against the US dollar, trading at 0.6650 levels, where the bets were on raising interest, while expectations were to keep it less than 30%.