The general US dollar index is trading at its highest level in two months at 103.40, up for the fourth consecutive session since the beginning of the week, benefiting from the high market expectations of continued tightening of monetary policy by the US Federal Reserve after the minutes of its previous meeting yesterday, Wednesday, and the rise in US Treasury bond yields.
The minutes of the US Federal Reserve’s previous meeting on July 25/26, issued at the end of trading on Wednesday, showed stronger tightening than expectations in monetary policy, as some members preferred to raise interest again before the end of the year, with inflation fears.
The members agreed that inflationary pressures are still high, that inflation is still far from the bank’s target, and that there is a need for more monetary tightening unless circumstances change, while two members of the committee preferred to leave interest rates as they are without changing the matter, which showed a state of disunity within the committee.
Futures forecasts by CME’s FEDWatch tool now see interest rates hike by 25 basis points at the November-December meeting of about 35% compared to less than 30% before the minutes. The yield on US Treasury bonds for two years, which is more sensitive to raising interest rates, rose and touched 5% levels yesterday, Wednesday, as a basis point, while the yield rose for ten years to its highest level since October of last year.
The Japanese yen is trading at its highest levels since November of last year, the highest levels of 146, and trading at the levels that witnessed the intervention of the Central Bank of Japan in the currency market last year.
On the other hand, Japan’s exports declined for the first time in more than two years, according to figures issued by the Ministry of Finance this morning, as it declined by 0.3% in July on an annual basis, declining for the first time since February 2021, affected by the decline in shipments of chip manufacturing equipment and spare parts, while the value of imports declined by 13.5%, the largest decline since September 2020, with commodity prices falling, marking the trade balance deficit of the world’s second largest economy of 78.7 billion yen, a surplus of 43 billion yen in June
Gold, in turn, is trading at $1,900 an ounce for the second consecutive session, at its lowest level in six weeks.