Crude oil prices fell more than 2% in mid-European trading today, Tuesday, October 14, to their lowest levels in five months, following the International Energy Agency’s report issued this morning and the escalation of trade tensions between Washington and Beijing. US crude (NYMEX) fell by approximately 2.27%, trading at $58.14 per barrel, its lowest level since May 8, while Brent crude traded at $61.97 per barrel, down approximately 2.13%.
The International Energy Agency’s report showed that the global oil market could face a larger surplus next year, reaching four million barrels per day, compared to the 3.3 million forecast last month. The report showed increased supply due to OPEC+ producers and their competitors increasing production while demand continues to slow. The agency expects a surplus of 3 million barrels this year, compared to 2.7 million barrels in its September estimate. It also lowered its global oil demand forecast to 710,000 barrels per day this year, a decrease of 30,000 barrels, which put pressure on crude prices.
OPEC had maintained its forecast for global oil demand growth this year and next in its monthly report issued earlier this week, Monday, at 1.3 million barrels this year and 1.4 million barrels next year. In a related development, the International Energy Agency’s report showed that Russian oil exports increased by 370,000 barrels to 5.1 million barrels, their highest level since May 2023. The report also indicated that Kazakhstan’s supplies decreased by 20,000 barrels per day from August, reaching 1.84 million barrels.