Crude oil prices are rising for the fourth consecutive session in mid-European trading today, Tuesday, June 10, amid expectations of the outcome of the trade talks between China and the United States and the American Petroleum Institute’s inventory figures this evening, ahead of the US Energy Information Administration’s figures tomorrow, Wednesday. Brent crude is up about 0.55%, trading at $67.41 a barrel, while US crude (NYMEX) is trading at $696,561 a barrel, up about 0.48%.
The second round of trade talks between the United States and China begins today, Tuesday, in London, following talks yesterday, Monday, between US Treasury Secretary Bennett and the US Secretary of Commerce and Trade Representative, with the Chinese side, represented by Chinese Vice Premier He Lifeng. Markets are awaiting any details or results from these talks, which, if positive, will boost demand for crude from the world’s largest oil consumer. In a related development, a Morgan Stanley report showed that despite the increase in OPEC+ oil production quotas in recent months, this shift has not yet translated into significant gains in actual production. Production has not increased significantly, particularly in Saudi Arabia, where reports indicate that Saudi Aramco will ship 47 million barrels to China in July, according to Chinese refinery allocation statistics, which is one million barrels less than the amount allocated in June. Meanwhile, a Reuters survey showed that OPEC production rose by 150,000 barrels to 26.75 million barrels per day in May. The survey showed that actual increases for the five member states (Saudi Arabia, Iraq, the UAE, Kuwait, and Algeria) amounted to only 180,000 barrels in May, less than the planned increase of 310,000 barrels. This is due to a decline in Iraqi production in May to meet its commitment to compensate for previously pumped quantities.