By closing the first trading session of the week yesterday, Monday, at $3,123 per ounce, the yellow metal recorded gains in the first quarter of this year of 19.3%, marking its best quarterly performance since 1986, the year of the Chernobyl disaster. This included gains of more than 9% in March alone, amounting to $267.
Rising geopolitical tensions in the Middle East and Europe, accompanied by increased demand for safe havens, led by gold, in addition to expectations of the Federal Reserve cutting interest rates this year, strong demand from central banks, increased flows into gold-backed exchange-traded funds, and the intensification of trade tensions following the tariff war imposed by US President Trump, which he intends to impose soon, are all factors that contributed to these gains for gold in the first quarter of this year.
The latest reports from Comex, a subsidiary of CME, indicate that gold stored in its US warehouses has reached an all-time high of 43.3 million ounces, valued at $135 billion, compared to 17.1 million ounces in November when Trump was elected.
This reflects the high global demand for the yellow metal in the first quarter of this year. Markets and investors are awaiting the World Gold Council’s latest data on central bank purchases for the first quarter of the year, which are expected to be high. Most financial institutions have raised their gold price forecasts for this year.
Goldman Sachs raised its forecast for the price of an ounce to $3,300 by the end of the year, compared to a previous forecast of $3,100.
The Goldman Sachs report indicated that central banks, especially those in emerging markets, have increased their gold purchases fivefold since 2022, while Bank of America raised its forecast to $355 by the end of the year.
An additional factor contributing to gold’s first-quarter gains was the decline in the US dollar index, which lost approximately 4.5%, closing the monthly and quarterly session at 103.87 on Monday.
\Gold is trading at midday trading on Tuesday at $3,135 per ounce, up approximately 0.411% after testing $3,148 at the beginning of the session. Silver is down approximately 0.28%, trading at $33.97 per ounce, following monthly gains of more than 3% in March.
02/04/2025
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