Today, Wednesday, June 15th, markets and traders focus on the meeting of the largest central bank in the world, the US Federal Reserve, which will discuss monetary policy developments and interest levels, as expectations indicate that interest levels may reach 1.50%-1.75%.

 The importance of today’s meeting for the markets comes after the recent inflation data, which showed the return of fears of high inflation again after it declined in April, but it seems that the effect of the price hike resulting from the Russian-Ukrainian war still has not reached the peak yet, and thus the continuation of inflation rises, which is afflicting the shoulders of the US Federal Reserve.

Even 48 hours ago, the move by the US Federal Reserve and raising interest rates by 50 basis points in today’s meeting was the closest by a large percentage, but the situation changed after Wall Street and CNBC published a study on the Fed members and their acceptance of the idea of ​​raising by 75 basis points, after which the expectations of markets and contracts rose The Fed will raise interest rates by about 75 basis points to more than 92%, according to CME’s FedWatch tool.

An increase of 75 basis points in today’s meeting will be the largest increase for one time since 1994 and will raise the risks of economic recession.

Will the US Federal Reserve risk a recession in order to fight inflation, which reached its highest level in 40 years at its last reading in May at 8.6%.

The US Federal Reserve will also announce its quarterly forecasts for the economy and will review its expectations for GDP growth, inflation and interest expectations, or what is known as the Diet Pilot chart or the points chart, which is issued every 3 months.

. Expected scenarios

A 50 basis point hike calculated completely in the current prices of the US dollar and stocks, and therefore we are expected to witness declines in the US dollar and an increase in stocks, high-risk currencies and digital currencies, since it will be a great disappointment for the markets.

A 75 basis point hike, which the markets also price by a large percentage. It is expected that we will witness a rise in the US dollar as an initial and temporary reaction, as the completion of the movement depends on the bank’s expectations of interest rates by the end of the year and whether it will move at the same pace in July.