<\/p>\n
\u00a0Three central banks lead the events of the current week<\/span><\/span><\/p>\n Keep an eye out for inflation figures from Australia, Japan and the PCE<\/span><\/span><\/p>\n Separate economic data<\/span><\/span><\/p>\n After growth figures from China, US and British retail sales, inflation from New Zealand, the United Kingdom and Canada, and Australian labor market numbers, in addition to some separate numbers, topped the events of last week.<\/span><\/span><\/p>\n US Federal<\/span><\/span><\/p>\n Markets and traders will focus on the meeting of the largest central bank in the world, the US Federal Reserve, which will meet on Tuesday and Wednesday to discuss developments in monetary policy and interest levels, as expectations indicate that the Fed will resume the process of raising interest rates by 25 basis points, to reach 5.50%, the highest level in 22 years.<\/span><\/span><\/p>\n After ten consecutive meetings of encouraging monetary policy and raising interest rates to combat hyperinflation, which reached peak levels of 9.1% in July of last year, its highest level in 40 years, the US Federal Reserve stopped raising in June.<\/span><\/span><\/p>\n The latest inflation reading from the United States of America, according to the Bureau of Labor Statistics for the annual indicator over the past 12 months, came at 3% in June compared to 4% in May, while expectations were for an increase of 3.2%, marking the lowest pace of growth since March 2021. <\/span><\/span><\/p>\n The annual basic index, which excludes food and energy prices, rose to 4.8% on an annual basis in June from 5.3%.<\/span><\/span> According to the estimates of the futures markets from FedWatch issued by CME, the markets are priced to raise interest rates by 25 basis points at the bank\u2019s meeting on Wednesday by 99%, and thus the Fed\u2019s rate hike by 25 basis points became certain this week, but the recent inflation figures and some statements raised the market\u2019s expectations to keep the interest rates at these levels 5.50% in the next three meetings after Wednesday\u2019s meeting (September – November – December) to more than 65% after the markets were expecting another hike before the end of the year, and therefore I expect That the markets focus on this hypothesis in addition to the date of starting to cut interest rates.<\/span><\/span><\/p>\n European Central Bank<\/span><\/span><\/p>\n Thursday, the European Central Bank will announce its monetary policy and interest rates, as it is estimated that interest rates will be raised by about 25 basis points, to reach 4.25% on Thursday.<\/span><\/span> Inflation rates in the eurozone slowed down from their peak levels in October of last year, at 10.6%, to reach 5.5% in June in the final reading, the same as the preliminary reading, compared to 6.1% in the May reading.<\/span><\/span><\/p>\n The statements of European Central Bank President Christine Lagarde and a number of monetary policy makers in the European Central Bank in the previous period support another rate hike to slow inflation and bring it back towards the bank\u2019s target of 2%. <\/span><\/span><\/p>\n Therefore, investors will focus on Christine Lagarde\u2019s statements at the press conference to read interest rate expectations for the September meeting and the coming period.<\/span><\/span><\/p>\n Bank of Japan<\/span><\/span><\/p>\n The Central Bank of Japan will hold its meeting at the end of the week, Friday, in the Asian session, to announce its monetary policy for the coming period and interest rates, as expectations indicate that the bank will keep monetary policy and the interest rate unchanged.<\/span><\/span><\/p>\n The latest reading of core inflation, which excludes the costs of fresh foodstuffs and issued at the end of the week, came in line with expectations at 3.3% in June, after a growth of 3.2% in May, while the index excluding fresh foodstuffs and fuel prices came at 4.2%, compared to 4.3% in May.<\/span><\/span><\/p>\n The markets are awaiting any amendments or hints of an amendment to the YCC yield control policy, as the bank surprised the markets in its last meeting at the end of December of last year and modified the yield ceiling for Japanese government bonds for ten years and allowed the yield to fluctuate up to about 0.50% higher or lower compared to its previous target of 0.25% in an unexpected step for the markets in a process similar to raising interest rates, which opened the door for the bank to abandon its facilitative policy.<\/span><\/span><\/p>\n Since the beginning of the new governor\u2019s phase, Oeda last April, the markets are betting that the bank\u2019s monetary policy will change in the current year, but Oeda announced more than once that he prefers to wait and monitor inflation and wages data before making any decision. <\/span><\/span>Will the Friday meeting be the date?<\/span><\/span><\/p>\n Inflation figures from Australia<\/span><\/span><\/p>\n In addition to the meeting of the three central banks, the markets are awaiting inflation figures for Australia, Tokyo and Germany, and inflation in consumer spending from the United States of America, or the preferred indicator of the well-known Fed, PCE.<\/span><\/span> Tomorrow morning, Wednesday, quarterly inflation figures will be released from Australia for the second quarter of this year. <\/span><\/span><\/p>\n Estimates indicate a slowdown in inflation to 1% on a quarterly basis, from 1.4% in the first quarter, and by 5.5% in June compared to 5.6% in May.<\/span><\/span> Inflation numbers from Australia will determine the bank’s direction at its next meeting in August and whether it will continue to tighten monetary policy or stop raising, hence the importance of tomorrow’s numbers.<\/span><\/span><\/p>\n Separate data that we follow during the week<\/span><\/span><\/p>\n Monday<\/span><\/span><\/p>\n New Zealand Trade Balance<\/span><\/span><\/p>\n Services and manufacturing PMI for Australia, Japan, Eurozone, UK and USA<\/span><\/span><\/p>\n Tuesday<\/span><\/span><\/p>\n Inflation from Japan<\/span><\/span><\/p>\n German <\/span><\/span>C<\/span><\/span>onfidence Index<\/span><\/span><\/p>\n US consumer confidence<\/span><\/span><\/p>\n Wednesday<\/span><\/span><\/p>\n Inflation from Australia<\/span><\/span><\/p>\n US home sales<\/span><\/span><\/p>\n US crude oil inventories<\/span><\/span><\/p>\n US Fed meeting<\/span><\/span><\/p>\n Thursday<\/span><\/span><\/p>\n European Central Bank<\/span><\/span><\/p>\n Read Growth for the USA<\/span><\/span><\/p>\n US unemployment benefits<\/span><\/span><\/p>\n Durable goods orders<\/span><\/span><\/p>\n Friday<\/span><\/span><\/p>\n Inflation from Tokyo<\/span><\/span><\/p>\n Bank of Japan meeting<\/span><\/span><\/p>\n Inflation from Germany<\/span><\/span><\/p>\n growth from Canada<\/span><\/span><\/p>\n US consumer spending inflation index<\/span><\/span><\/p>\n <\/p>","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":" \u00a0Three central banks lead the events of the current week Keep an eye out for inflation figures from Australia, Japan and the PCE Separate economic data After growth figures from China, US and British retail sales, inflation from New Zealand, the United Kingdom and Canada, and Australian labor market numbers, in addition to some separate […]<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":1,"featured_media":6300,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"_acf_changed":false,"nf_dc_page":"","footnotes":""},"categories":[1],"tags":[],"class_list":["post-6840","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","has-post-thumbnail","hentry","category-currency-markets"],"acf":[],"yoast_head":"\n