Gold traded lower for the fourth consecutive session in midday European trading on Tuesday, November 18th, as market expectations for an interest rate cut at the December meeting diminished. This positively impacted the US dollar and negatively affected gold, which fell by approximately 0.19% to trade at $4,036 per ounce. Silver, meanwhile, traded at $50.27 per ounce, up 0.13%.

Market expectations for a US Federal Reserve interest rate cut at its meeting on December 10th have declined. According to the CME FedWatch tool, the probability of a 25-basis-point rate cut in December has dropped to 46%, compared to 53% for rates to remain unchanged. This is a significant decrease from over 70% at the beginning of last week. Statements by several Federal Reserve members last week played a significant role in changing this ratio, given the rising uncertainty in the US economy, growing fears of renewed inflation, and concerns about the weakness of the US labor market, especially after the government shutdown that lasted over 40 days before a bill to end it was passed last week.

Markets are awaiting the US labor market figures and the unemployment rate for October this week, which were postponed due to the government shutdown. These figures will be closely watched by investors to assess the impact of the shutdown on the Fed’s future projections.

In related news, a Goldman Sachs report showed that China added 15 tons to its gold reserves in September, while global central banks added nearly 64 tons in September, three times the amount added in August.

Platinum is trading at $1,532, down 0.08%, while palladium is down about 0.41%, trading at $1,386.