A look at the most important events of the past week
The European Central is taking the lead
Inflation data from the UK and Canada
Miscellaneous data we will follow up
After the Central Bank of New Zealand and the Bank of Canada announced their monetary policies last week, attention is turning during this week’s sessions towards the Central Bank of Japan and the European Central Bank to find out about monetary policy and interest rates for them, in addition to many economic data that we will follow up during this week’s sessions, especially inflation data. From New Zealand, Britain and Canada.
A look at the most important events of the past week In a quick look at the most important events of the past week, the Bank of New Zealand raised interest rates by 50 basis points on Tuesday to reach 2.50%.
The Reserve Bank of New Zealand raised interest rates by 50 basis points for the third time in a row (fayezalajmi-4x.com)
The most important events of the past week were the US inflation figures, which came above expectations at 9.1% in June. Annual inflation in the United States of America a new high level (fayezalajmi-4x.com)
The Bank of Canada, in turn, in a surprising move, raised interest rates by 100 basis points on Wednesday. The Bank of Canada raised interest rates by 100 basis points (fayezalajmi-4x.com)
We also witnessed many important economic data that were announced during the past week such as Australian labor market numbers, growth numbers from China and US retail sales that concluded the week.
The US dollar managed to record gains for the third week in a row, by closing the weekly session at 107.95 levels, after testing 109.25 levels in the middle of the week, to continue maintaining its highest levels since 2002, and trading on Monday morning at 107.76 levels.
The European Central Bank
is at the fore Finally, after a long wait, one of the last major central banks in the world will raise interest rates and begin to tighten monetary policy when it meets next Thursday, July 21 for the first time since 2011.
It is expected that interest rates will rise by 25 basis points to reach 0.25%. European inflation figures are at record levels of 8.6%, according to the latest figures issued in June, which are far from the bank’s target of 2%, and it is expected to rise more with the continuation of the reasons, as the Russian-Ukrainian war still exists, in addition to supply chain problems and the gas and oil crisis, and therefore the most important question that will be on the The European Central meeting table is what after raising interest rates by 25 basis points.
The majority of central banks preceded the European Central in tightening monetary policy, the latest of which was the Bank of Canada, which raised it by 100 basis points last week.
Therefore, the markets are awaiting hints of a stronger intervention in the September meeting, exceeding 50 basis points.
The euro area is gaining an additional pressure factor more than other major economies, as it is directly affected by the Russian-Ukrainian war.
Fears of slowing growth and recession represent the central bank’s biggest fears and pressure it and make it more than likely to exceed expectations and raise interest rates by 50 basis points or more, as Federal did. big .
The bank is also expected to announce a new bond purchase program or the so-called anti-retail tool to maintain the price differential between bonds.
The united euro currency fell below parity levels with the dollar last week for the first time in twenty years, as the euro lost more than 15 cents since the beginning of the Ukrainian war, which also puts pressure on the European Central, as the weak euro exacerbates the inflation problem.
Bank of Japan
The Bank of Japan is the only one that swims against the trend of other central banks around the world, which are accelerating about tightening monetary policy and raising interest rates, while members of the Japanese Central Bank defend their easing policy.
The consumer price index, which is concerned with measuring inflation and the target from the bank, will be released next Friday, amid expectations that it will rise to 2.2% in June from 2.1% in the current reading.
critical, according to the Japanese government. The bank is not expected to change its monetary policy at Thursday’s meeting and is expected to maintain its easing policy, but Friday’s inflation figures, if they come in stronger than expectations, and the continued weakness of Japanese coffee, which is approaching 140 levels for the first time in 24 years, has changed its position Bank in the last quarter of the year.
New Zealand quarterly inflation at 1.7%.
Figures issued from New Zealand this morning showed that the quarterly inflation index in New Zealand rose to 1.7% in the second quarter of this year ending in June, from 1.8% in the first quarter, while expectations indicated a growth of 1.5%, and annual inflation reached 7.3% in June. Its highest level in 32 years.
In Al-Faseel, housing and household utilities prices increased by 2.3%, transportation prices increased by 2.3%, and food prices increased by 1.3%.
United kingdom
The CPI inflation gauge for the UK will be announced on Wednesday as inflation is expected to rise to 9.3% in June from 9.1%, which enhances the chances that the Bank of England will tighten monetary policy and raise interest rates by 50 basis points at its next meeting.
On the other hand, recession fears are rising in the UK, so employment numbers, retail sales and PMI will be the most important events of the week for the UK.
After the Bank of Canada took an unexpected step last week and raised the interest rate by 100 basis points in the bank’s strongest increase in 24 years, attention is turning to Canadian inflation figures that will be released next Wednesday.
Will the numbers justify this strong intervention from the bank. Inflation represented by the CPI at 7.7% in its last reading for the month of May, and the bank expects inflation to remain around 8% in the next few months as the turmoil continues from the Ukraine war and the supply chain crisis, so we are not expected to see strong movements in the Canadian dollar with the inflation figures this week .
Miscellaneous data during the week
Today, Monday, we will follow in the American session the statements of BOE member Sanders, in addition to the data of Canadian homes.
Tomorrow Tuesday we will watch the minutes of the Reserve Bank of Australia meeting two weeks ago, in the European session we will watch the labor market data from the UK and the final inflation reading in the Eurozone, Bank of England Governor Billy will speak in the American session.
Wednesday we will watch the statements of the Governor of the Bank of Australia Lowe in the Asian session, from the United Kingdom the inflation numbers will be released in the Asian session, Canadian inflation numbers, American consumer confidence and home sales, the most important events of the American session.
Thursday, in the Asian session, we will follow the Bank of Japan meeting, while the European Central Bank meeting tops the European period, in the American period, the weekly unemployment benefits and the Philadelphia manufacturing index will be announced.
The last sessions of the week Friday, inflation figures will be released from Japan, in the European period we will monitor retail sales from the United Kingdom, while the eurozone countries and the United Kingdom will announce the preliminary reading of the manufacturing and services PMI index, in the American session we will monitor Canadian retail sales and service and manufacturing PMI numbers from the United States of America . You can
المفكرة الإقتصادية – فايز العجمي – Fayez Alajmi (fayezalajmi-4x.com)follow the events and economic data and know their dates on the link
02/11/2024
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