The most important events of the past week
Has the European region and the euro begun the post-Angela Merkel era?
Miscellaneous data we will follow during the week
After a week marked by events that directly affected the movements of global markets, with four central banks led by the US Federal Reserve, the markets entered the markets at a date with a week described as relatively calm with the absence of central banks and strong events.
In a quick look at the most important events of the current week and how they affected the movements of global markets, we start with the minutes of the previous meeting of the Australian Bank, which was held on the seventh of September, in which it decided to keep monetary policy unchanged and maintain the current interest rates at 0.10%, and the bank decided to continue buying government securities At a rate of 4 billion dollars per week until February of next year at the very least instead of next November.
Australian Reserve Bank minutes of the September 7th meeting – Fayez Al-Ajmi (fayezalajmi-4x.com)
The Bank of Japan, in turn, decided to keep its monetary policy unchanged at its meeting last Wednesday and to keep negative interest rates at -0.10% with a majority of 8-1.
Bank of Japan keeps monetary policy unchanged, yen and Japanese stocks down – Fayez Al-Ajmi (fayezalajmi-4x.com)
The most important events of the week were represented in the Federal Reserve’s meeting on Wednesday, in which the bank unanimously kept interest rates unchanged at the current levels of 0.25% as expected, and the bank announced that it would continue its program to purchase assets from treasury bonds with no less than 80 billion dollars per month and 40 billion dollars of securities. Mortgage backed finance.
The US Federal Reserve does not change its monetary policy – Fayez Al-Ajmi (fayezalajmi-4x.com) The US Federal Reserve lowered its forecast for GDP growth for the current year to 5.9%, compared to 7% in its June forecast. The Federal Economic Committee raises its inflation forecast for the current year
– Fayez Al-Ajmi (fayezalajmi-4x.com) After the US Federal Reserve Bank of England and the Swiss National Bank also kept their monetary policies unchanged last Thursday Swiss National Bank maintains monetary policy and raises inflation expectations – Fayez Al-Ajmi (fayezalajmi-4x.com)
Bank of England maintains monetary policy – Fayez Al-Ajmi (fayezalajmi-4x.com) The Evergrande crisis had a large space in the events of the past week, as the company defaulted on paying the equivalent of $83.5 million in interest related to the March 2022 bonds on Thursday and entered the 30-day grace period, which negatively affected the sentiment of the financial markets at the beginning of the week, raising the safe havens with high expectations that the company would default about payment.
What is Evragrande? Will Evergrande switch to LTCM China – Fayez Al-Ajmi (fayezalajmi-4x.com) The markets concluded the week with statements by Federal Reserve Chairman Jerome Powell on Friday, who confirmed that the bank will proceed with reducing the pace of bond purchases in November if the employment data for the month of October came out well.
The US dollar managed to close its third week in a row with gains, albeit slight, estimated at 0.04 at closing at 93.25 levels, after testing 93.50 levels during the week and trading on Monday morning The yellow metal ended the week’s sessions with a slight decline, affected by the rise of the US dollar, in a decline for the third week in a row, with a loss of 4 dollars at the closing at levels of 1850 dollars per ounce compared to the opening prices of the week, but it lost about 35 dollars from its highest level during the week at 1886 dollars per ounce that it tested on Wednesday.
This week’s main events Euro-zone The events of the week began on the weekend yesterday, with the German voters performing their votes in the parliamentary elections and choosing the new chancellor to succeed Chancellor Angela Merkel. Merkel has been in power since 2005, but she plans to resign after the elections, and thus the largest economy in Europe will enter a new journey after Merkel. The results issued a few moments ago announced that the Social Democratic Party won the parliamentary elections by obtaining 25.7% of the vote, narrowly ahead of the conservatives by 24.1%, while the Green Party came third with 14.8% and the Free Democratic Party with 11.5%. Europe’s strongest economy will go a long way to forming a new government, while Merkel will remain in office until her successor is sworn in.
Markets are awaiting by the end of the week, Friday, the preliminary reading of inflation in the euro area, with expectations of a rise in inflation to 3.3% in the preliminary reading for the month of September, compared to 3% in the August reading. Christine Lagarde, Governor of the European Central Bank, is expected to testify before the Committee on Economic and Monetary Affairs in the European period on Monday.
United States of America The statements of US Federal Reserve Chairman Jerome Powell, who is scheduled to participate in a hypothetical discussion on central banking services on Wednesday in the American session, in addition to the various statements of members of the Monetary Policy Committee of the US Federal Bank (Evans – Williams – Brainard – Bostick) during the week, top the scene in the US economy during This week, as the markets will wait for confirmations to the Fed members that November is the expected date for the US Federal Reserve to reduce its purchases of bonds and wait for some details such as the size of the monthly reduction or the period of expiry of the program.
In terms of economic data, it is expected to be released during the American session today, Monday, the durablee Asian session, we will follow the manufacturing and non-manufacturing PMI index from China, while labor market data will be released from Europe in the European session, weekly unemployment benefits and the Chicago goods orders index for the month of August, as it is expected to rise by 0.7%, in addition to the ISM manufacturing purchasing managers index issued by the end of the week on Friday.
The PCE h index is the preferred personal consumption expenditures price index of the US Federal Reserve for inflation, as the index excludes receptive elements such as food and energy prices and gives a real reading of inflation.
It is expected to be released on Friday by the end of the week. The index is expected to decline to 0.2% in August, compared to 0.3% in the last reading for the month of July.
Miscellaneous data during the week Tomorrow, Tuesday, in the Asian session, Australian retail sales will be released In the US session we will be watching Consumer Confidence and Richmond Manufacturing Index from the USA.
Wednesday and from Germany, retail sales and import prices will be released in addition to the preliminary reading of Spanish inflation, while the markets will be watching crude oil inventories in the American session in addition to the US home sales.
Thursday, in th PMI in the American session. The last sessions of the week Friday, the eurozone countries will announce the final reading of the PMI manufacturing index in addition to the Canadian GDP statement.
06/11/2024
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