The US Federal Reserve decided at its meeting, which concluded moments ago today, Wednesday, June 18, to keep interest rates unchanged at 4.5%, as expected, for the fourth consecutive meeting. The interest rate statement indicated increased uncertainty regarding the economic outlook.
The bank’s members lowered their forecasts for economic growth this year and raised their inflation forecasts. Members now see growth at 1.6% this year, down from 1.8% in the March forecast, and at 1.6% next year, down from 1.6% in the March forecast. The 2027 forecast remained at 1.8%, unchanged from the March forecast.
The dot plot report, or date plot, remained unchanged from the March report, with eight Fed members expecting two interest rate cuts this year, seven members not expecting any rate cuts, two members expecting one cut, and two members expecting three cuts. PCE inflation forecasts came in at 3%, down from 2.7% in the March estimate, and at 2.4% next year, down from 2.2% in the September estimate. Conversely, core inflation forecasts were lowered to 3.1% this year, down from 2.8% in the March estimate, and to 2.4% next year, down from 2.2%, and down from 2.1% in 2027.
The statement indicated that the Committee will continue to monitor and assess incoming economic forecasts and that it stands ready to adjust monetary policy stance as appropriate.
Markets are awaiting Federal Reserve Chairman Jerome Powell’s press conference in less than half an hour and his response to reporters’ questions.