The Russian-Ukrainian crisis hits the market again

What are we waiting for this week?

Strong guilds at the opening

Investors and market sentiment continue to focus on the Russian-Ukrainian crisis, which returned to the upside at the beginning of the week, Monday, the opening session of the week, after the Russian President lifted the state of nuclear alert in conjunction with the sanctions imposed by the West, such as isolating Russian banks from the SWIFT system, causing a state of chaos at the opening. Where the markets opened to different unions came in the interest of currencies and assets of safe havens.

The markets ignored the economic data issued last week with these geopolitical developments, which are expected to continue to be ignored this week as well, especially if the escalation of tensions between Russia and the West continues further this week.

This week’s main events

The most important events of the current week are the meeting of the Reserve Bank of Australia and the testimony of US Federal President Jerome Powell before Congress, in addition to the US labor market numbers for the month of February at the end of the week.

Reserve Bank of Australia meeting

The Reserve Bank of Australia is expected to keep its monetary policy and interest rates unchanged at its meeting tomorrow morning, Tuesday, March 1. Market expectations for a rate hike from the Reserve Bank of Australia in June have subsided after the situation in Russia and Ukraine caused a reassessment of the global impact on the Australian economy.

It is expected that the GDP data for the fourth quarter of 2021 will be announced on Wednesday, that is, 24 hours after the bank’s meeting, but expectations indicate that the economy will grow by 3% in the last quarter, which confirms the continuation of the economic recovery.

Powell’s testimony before Congress

The President of the US Federal Reserve will appear before a committee of legislators in Congress on Wednesday and Thursday to discuss developments in the current conditions and their impact on the American economy and give an update to the monetary policy of the bank, which reflects the importance of the testimony and its impact on market movements.

The Russian-Ukrainian turmoil will make the matter more complicated for monetary policy makers in the Federal Reserve, as this conflict has raised the prices of commodities and oil to record levels, which threatens to raise inflation prices to new levels.

It is expected that Powell’s focus will be on how to counter the effects of this conflict in the coming period without affecting the future of US interest rates.

Estimates of futures contracts, according to the CME Fed Watch tool, indicate that the Fed will raise interest rates by a quarter of a blister at the March meeting by 96%, after expectations indicated that more than 50% would raise interest rates by half a point before the Ukraine crisis

. US labor market

data At the end of the week, Friday, the US Department of Labor will announce its latest report on the US labor market in the non-farm sector NFP jobs for the month of February, where expectations indicate that 400 thousand jobs will be added in February after adding 467 thousand jobs in January to reflect the continued recovery in the labor market.

Expectations also indicate a decline in the unemployment rate to 3.9%, while wages are expected to decline to 0.5%.

Guilds at the opening The general index of the US dollar opened the week with a bullish opening by about 0.70%, benefiting from its status as a safe haven after the nuclear threats at the weekend from Moscow, while the euro opened just about 150 points lower against the US dollar at 1.1126 levels.

On the other hand, the Japanese yen is trading at levels of 115.55 against the US dollar, after it opened an ascending door, given that it is one of the most important safe havens with the US dollar.