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Eyes turn to US and Canadian labor market data for January
image 4 February، 2022
image ابحاث السوق
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 After the results of the European and English Central Bank meeting yesterday, Thursday, and the strong movements that the markets witnessed, attention turns today, Friday, by the end of the week, towards the US labor market data in the non-agricultural sector (NFP), as the United States of America announces on the first Friday of every month, and accordingly, the January numbers will be announced today, the fourth Friday.

from February. Estimates indicate that unemployment rates remained unchanged at 3.9% in January, while employment rates are expected to slow to less than 100,000 jobs, compared to the December reading, which added 199 thousand jobs.

The White House warned over the weekend that the rise in Omicron cases in January could affect the January numbers, as millions left work temporarily due to illness or to care for a family member, and therefore the numbers may not be accurate under these circumstances.

The wage rate, in turn, is expected to decline in January to 0.5% at a monthly pace and to rise at an annual pace to 4.8%. Most of the economic numbers released during the week came to reflect that today’s numbers are expected to be largely negative, as the US private sector lost about 301 thousand jobs in January, the first loss since 2004, in addition to the decline in the employment index within the ISM sector to its lowest level since October of last year and declined The US Consumer Confidence Index and the Average Weekly Jobless Claims Rise.

All these numbers, in addition to Omicron’s clear impact on the US economy in January, may give an indication that today’s numbers may be negative, but it does not necessarily have an impact on the markets and the Fed’s expectations for the future of US interest rates and their raising in March.

The dollar’s ​​movements are negative since the beginning of the week, and a large part of them were calculated by negative numbers today. Therefore, if the numbers are positive today, the US dollar will rise more than if the numbers came negative, which in turn will support the continuation of the declines, and the euro and the British pound will be one of the biggest beneficiaries today.

The US dollar is trading at its lowest level in two weeks at 95.22 this Friday morning, in decline for the fifth consecutive session, as the general index of the dollar is heading to lose more than 2% this week.

On the other hand, the Canadian economy is also expected to announce the loss of about 121 thousand jobs in January after it added about 55 thousand jobs in December, and the unemployment rate will rise to 6.3% from 5.9% with the return of restrictions and fears in Canada in January from the spread of Omicron.

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