Less than six hours separates us from the most important economic data for the current week represented in the non-agricultural employment data known as NFP issued by the US Department of Labor. Determine its monetary policy.

Expectations from most analysts, banks and financial institutions indicate the addition of between 400-600 thousand jobs in the month of September, compared to 235 thousand jobs added by the US economy in August, with expectations of a decline in the unemployment rate to 5.1%.

The private sector report issued by the ADP added 568 thousand jobs, the ISM manufacturing sector employment rate rose by 53%, and the average weekly jobless claims improved, supporting the US economy adding more than 400 thousand jobs in September.

The importance of today’s data is that it will enhance the market’s expectations that the US Federal Reserve will reduce its purchases of bonds at its next meeting in November.

The statements of the US Federal Reserve Chairman and members of the FOMC previously and more than once that the Fed does not want excellent data until it begins to reduce bond purchases in November, but it wants the data to be good and based on market expectations of adding more than 400 thousand jobs and a decrease in unemployment to 5.1% are considered more numbers It is enough for the US Fed to start reducing purchases in November, but in the event that we witness a big negative surprise in September (adding less than 100,000 jobs) it is not excluded that it will affect the Fed’s decision at the November meeting.

The general index of the US dollar has been trading at a slight increase since the beginning of the session, by about 0.10% at levels of 94.27, while the Japanese yen and the Swiss franc have fallen strongly since yesterday’s session, after the news of reaching an agreement on raising the US debt ceiling.

One of the most affected currencies today, in case the data came in support of the US dollar’s rise.

Expected scenarios Employment numbers more than expected, with a decline or stability in the unemployment rate with an improvement in the level of wages, will support the gains of the US dollar strongly in the remainder of the session, while the yen and franc currencies will be the most losing.

Jobs are less than market expectations, but came better than the August data (235 thousand) that will negatively affect the US dollar temporarily, but it is expected that it will return to rise before the end of the session, especially if the unemployment and wages data are positive.

A big negative surprise in September (less than 100,000 jobs added) will add to the strong losses of the US dollar as it is not unlikely to affect the US Federal Reserve’s decision at the November meeting.

Canada

On the other hand, at the same time, Canadian labor market data will be released, where it is expected that the unemployment rate in Canada will decline to 6.9% in September from 7.1%, and the Canadian economy will add about 60 thousand jobs.