Crude oil prices rose more than 1% at the start of trading in the European session today, Monday, September 8, the opening session of the week, following OPEC+’s decision to increase production less than expected over the weekend. This supported crude oil markets, in addition to rising geopolitical tensions related to Ukraine and Russia following Russia’s attacks on Ukraine and rising expectations of additional sanctions on buyers of Russian crude. Brent crude rose by about 1.73%, trading at $66.63 per barrel, while US crude (NYMEX) traded at $62.93 per barrel, up about 1.71%.

The eight OPEC crude-exporting countries and their non-OPEC allies, led by Russia, in the OPEC+ alliance, decided at their meeting yesterday, Sunday, to approve a new production increase of 137,000 barrels per day in October. The countries (Saudi Arabia, Russia, Iraq, Kuwait, Kazakhstan, Algeria, Oman, and the United Arab Emirates) decided to continue their approach of increasing production since April, after years of voluntary cuts. The increase in October fell short of expectations and was significantly lower than the increases in September and August, which amounted to 555,000 barrels, and the 411,000 barrels in June and July, which supported the rise in crude prices in the opening session.
In contrast, US President Trump indicated that he is preparing for a second phase of sanctions on Russia and Russian oil buyers following Russia’s attack on Ukraine yesterday, Sunday.

Standard & Poor’s expects Brent crude to fall to around $55 per barrel by the end of this year as global demand declines and supply increases. Goldman Sachs expects Brent crude to average $56 per barrel next year, with an oil surplus forecast of 1.6 million barrels next year.