Crude oil prices fell during midday trading in Europe on Tuesday, November 25, erasing gains from Monday’s opening session, which saw a rise of over 2%. This decline came amid growing expectations that Moscow and Kyiv will reach an agreement to end the war, potentially supporting the continued flow of Russian oil, which is subject to some sanctions. Prices are now awaiting preliminary inventory figures from the American Petroleum Institute (API) later today, ahead of official figures from the U.S. Energy Information Administration (EIA) on Wednesday. U.S. crude (WTI) is down about 2.31%, trading at $57.48 per barrel, while Brent crude is trading at $61.93 per barrel, down about 2.27%.

A U.S. official told ABC News moments ago that Ukraine has agreed to the terms of a potential peace agreement and that only minor details remain to be finalized. Talks with Russia are progressing, which is negatively impacting crude prices, which are currently down more than 2%. The oil market is facing a supply glut, and any agreement to end the war could exacerbate this oversupply, leading to a further decline in crude prices.

In related news, JPMorgan Chase lowered its latest forecasts today for Bentley crude to $57 per barrel and WTI crude to $53 per barrel in 2027, while maintaining its projections of $58 and $54 per barrel, respectively, for next year. This comes as the bank anticipates that strong demand for oil will grow by 900,000 barrels per day this year, reaching 105.5 million barrels per day.

Meanwhile, Brent Deutsche Bank expects the global crude oil surplus to reach at least 2 million barrels per day next year, with no clear path back to a deficit until 2027.